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Support to Public Enterprise Elektroprivreda Srbije (EPS)

Long-term forecasting of the electricity market inputs and finance model preparation relevant for the pump-storage hydro plant Bistrica in Serbia.

Description of project:

Serbia (as is the case with other Western Balkan countries) is signatory party to the Energy Community Treaty of South-East Europe (SEE), signed for the purpose of liberalization and creation of single electricity and gas market in SEE. The Government of Serbia is pursuing a reform program in the sector. Full market liberalization is expected in January 2015. The enactment of a new Energy Law which would implement the EUs Third Energy Package is expected by December 2014.

Based on the National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) adopted in 2013, to achieve its targets in the electric power sector, Serbia plans to install additional 1,092 MW of power plant facilities (out of which 500MW of wind energy and almost 440 MW of small and medium hydro power plants) that will generate additional 3,653 GWh/annum in 2020.

Serbian power system is predominantly based on aged lignite-fired TPPs contributing to 70 % of total annual generation. Power demand is characterized by a large share of consumption by the residential sector (about 55 %) with high seasonal and daily variations.

Other Western Balkan countries are faced with similar challenges - aged power plants, lack of resources that can provide balancing and ancillary services and ambitious renewable energy integration targets. Therefore, resources that can provide needed system services can play significant role in the regional power market.

ÅF's servies:

Based on the existing technical documentation, energy storage capacity of the PSHPP Bistrica will be approx. 60 GWh and installed power 680 MW. Previous analysis of financial viability was conducted under different circumstances - within the framework of fully state-owned and operated power system.

Therefore, a proper market study and financial model are needed for updated evaluation. Therefore this assignment includes following tasks:

  • Revision of balancing and ancillary services market rules in Serbia and the region and proposal for alignment with best EU practice;
  • Long-term demand and energy/services price forecast relevant for PSHPP Bistrica cash-flow calculation;
  • Preparation of the financial model for PSHPP (excel tool);
  • Capacity building training for team appointed by EPS (on developed financial model and project finance concept).

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